193 stories
TL;DRIn Q2 2026, we ran the first MATS x Coefficient Giving (CG) Pitch Week: a four-week program designed to take fellowship researchers from an early idea to a funding decision.
tl;drIf you are working in AI safety, while presenting information to interested non-AI safety or transitioning personnel, avoid portraying high values of p(doom) without sharing counterarguments.
Epistemic status: personal reflections on my life and worldviews.AI use: review, grammar and readability changes.I discovered Inkhaven recently, and it got me interested in writing.
AI safety has gone mainstream. More people than ever want to work on AI safety research, and there are real policy wins in the US, the UK and Europe. But political will and market incentives are now the bottleneck, and policy officers can't own correct implementation alone.Having built a…
IntroductionWe continue where we left off. We will now analyze the special case when the true distribution is regular for the statistical model. This covers the classical Bayesian statistics.
I have seen plenty of discourse and writing on the subject of intent vs impact when actions lead to harm, particularly in existing interpersonal relationships.
A Ukrainian fibre-optic drone — copied from Russians. (АрміяІнформ, CC-BY 4.0)Mick Ryan describes the fast following loop in war. Ukraine pioneered mobile teams to hunt drones. Russia copied it and incorporated it into its own defense.
(Epistemic status: A promising but weird research direction in agent foundations and philosophy of language. A half-built conceptual tower whose mortar and paint are both still wet: please excuse our mess while we innovate.
For a long time I thought about keeping my writing in a git repository so that it wouldn't suddenly disappear, and so that I could write using the tool I'm most comfortable with (Emacs). But setting it all up didn't seem worth the time and effort.
I haven't seen this posted yet; I know lots of people here care about pandemic preparedness. It looks like there was a lab leak of pneumonic plague in Russia after a worker "accidentally broke[] a test tube containing live bacteria". Unfortunately she later died at the hospital on a ventilator.
I thought it would be interesting to try having Claude Code download my entire LessWrong and EA Forum post and comment history and evaluate it for my own cognitive biases and problematic communication patterns.
There’s a controversial and unsettled debate in Communication Studies and Psychology about the utility of existential risk framing. This debate has been hashed out for years in the climate change space.
Opus 5.5 is a really good writer.I had a conversation about some stuff related to how hospitals work, and some vague hunches I had about AI alignment ideas, and Duncan's new "deer in the subway" post, then I asked it to write an essay and it wrote this.
This post was originally written for my Substack. Please feel free to subscribe if this kind of content interests you!Frontier AI companies have long had the stated goal of automating their own research.
1. Executive Summary1.1 What this field is and why it mattersAI is already substantially changing how people and institutions work out what to believe, decide what to do, and coordinate on actions to take.
About a year ago, I decided to go all-in on applying to AI safety fellowships, and around the end of 2025 I got into MATS. I think there's a small art to communicating your skills legibly. When I've spoken with others about how I answer application questions, they seem to appreciate my advice.
On September 26, I celebrated Petrov Day in Cusco, Peru. Our book club, De Profundis, turned one that night, and I asked for five minutes to speak. Most people in the room had never heard of Stanislav Petrov.The 5:26 video is in Spanish with English subtitles.I told the story from memory, in…
On “reversed stupidity”, the success of deep learning, and what a mistaken forecast should change about a model of intelligenceThis began as a Twitter/X thread after I posted a 2007 passage in which Eliezer Yudkowsky was scathing about neural networks, and asked whether, in hindsight, his dismissal…
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