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Microsoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade

Microsoft published a bearish AI outlook from Nobel economist Daron Acemoglu. He predicts about 1.5 percent GDP growth over ten years and at most five percent of jobs replaced. Bigger models won't move the needle, he argues. What's missing are practical apps that change how work gets done.

By Matthias BastianThe Decoder
Microsoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade

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Originally published by The Decoder on Oct 6, 2026.

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