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Benchmarking NumPyro, affine-invariant MCMC, and dynesty against exact ground truth and watching them fail. The post Three Samplers, One Posterior: NUTS vs. Emcee vs. Nested Sampling appeared first on Towards Data Science.
Pascal’s Triangle, Explained From ScratchContinue reading on Towards AI »
Plot a bell curve two ways: build it step by step in Excel, or upload your file to RowSpeak and ask for it in one sentence. Includes prompts, review checks, and common mistakes.
The Half-Life of a Github Repo Of 512,016 repos born on GitHub between 2019 and 2025, 97% got no star from anyone else in their first 90 days. What the other 3% had in common, measured. Ten birth …
A team's power-user persona says integrations are the top priority. A real power user on the call says integrations matter least to them, speed is what they actually want. Neither the persona nor the customer is wrong.
With the goal of deploying generative AI systems, rater studies are becoming increasingly common and important. This means more and more researchers and engineers face the challenge of actually planning and conducting rater studies for AI systems.
Dealing with rater disagreement is becoming more important in AI, especially for LLMs and in specialized domains such as health. In the past year, I helped open source two datasets allowing to study rater disagreement in the health domain: a relabeling of MedQA, a key benchmark for evaluating…
Over the past months, I have given several talks about Monte Carlo conformal prediction and the problem of calibrating with uncertain ground truth, for example, stemming from annotator disagreement. Each time, the audience had great questions and ideas for extensions and interesting applications.
Time series problems are ubiquitous, from forecasting weather and traffic patterns to understanding economic trends. Bayesian approaches start with an assumption about the data's patterns (prior probability), collecting evidence (e.g., new time series data), and continuously updating that…
Image Source: Wikipedia License CC-BY-SA 3.0 If you, like me, frequently commute via public transit, you may be familiar with the following situation: You arrive at the bus stop, ready to catch your bus: a line that advertises arrivals every 10 minutes. You glance at your watch and note the time...
This week, Twitter upped their single-tweet character limit from 140 to 280, purportedly based on this interesting analysis of tweet lengths published on Twitter's engineering blog.
Last year I wrote a series of posts comparing frequentist and Bayesian approaches to various problems: In Frequentism and Bayesianism I: a Practical Introduction I gave an introduction to the main philosophical differences between frequentism and Bayesianism, and showed that for many common…
An oft-repeated rule of thumb in any sort of statistical model fitting is "you can't fit a model with more parameters than data points". This idea appears to be as wide-spread as it is incorrect.
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